Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Schrader S[original query] |
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Effectiveness of the original monovalent coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines in preventing emergency department or urgent care encounters and hospitalizations among adults with disabilities: VISION Network, June 2021-September 2022
Patel P , Schrader KE , Rice CE , Rowley E , Cree RA , DeSilva MB , Embi PJ , Gaglani M , Grannis SJ , Ong TC , Stenehjem E , Naleway AL , Ball S , Natarajan K , Klein NP , Adams K , Kharbanda A , Ray C , Link-Gelles R , Tenforde MW . Open Forum Infect Dis 2023 10 (11) ofad474 Adults with disabilities are at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using data across 9 states during Delta- and Omicron-predominant periods (June 2021-September 2022), we evaluated the effectiveness of the original monovalent COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccines among 521 206 emergency department/urgent care encounters (11 471 [2%] in patients with a documented disability) and 139 548 hospitalizations (16 569 [12%] in patients with a disability) for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in adults (aged ≥18 years). Across variant periods and for the primary series or booster doses, vaccine effectiveness was similar in those with and those without a disability. These findings highlight the importance of adults with disabilities staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines at Preventing Emergency Department or Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Immunocompromised Adults: An Observational Study of Real-World Data Across 10 US States from August-December 2021 (preprint)
Embi PJ , Levy ME , Patel P , DeSilva MB , Gaglani M , Dascomb K , Dunne MM , Klein NP , Ong TC , Grannis SJ , Natarajan K , Yang DH , Stenehjem E , Zerbo O , McEvoy C , Rao S , Thompson MG , Konatham D , Irving SA , Dixon BE , Han J , Schrader KE , Grisel N , Lewis N , Kharbanda AB , Barron MA , Reynolds S , Liao IC , Fadel WF , Rowley EA , Arndorfer J , Goddard K , Murthy K , Valvi NR , Weber ZA , Fireman B , Reese SE , Ball SW , Naleway AL . medRxiv 2022 21 Background: Immunocompromised (IC) persons are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes and are less protected by 1-2 COVID-19 vaccine doses than are immunocompetent (non-IC) persons. We compared vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended COVID-19 of 2-3 mRNA and 1-2 viral-vector vaccine doses between IC and non-IC adults. Method(s): Using a test-negative design among eight VISION Network sites, VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) events and hospitalizations from 26 August-25 December 2021 was estimated separately among IC and non-IC adults and among specific IC condition subgroups. Vaccination status was defined using number and timing of doses. VE for each status (versus unvaccinated) was adjusted for age, geography, time, prior positive test result, and local SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Result(s): We analyzed 8,848 ED/UC events and 18,843 hospitalizations among IC patients and 200,071 ED/UC events and 70,882 hospitalizations among non-IC patients. Among IC patients, 3-dose mRNA VE against ED/UC (73% [95% CI: 64-80]) and hospitalization (81% [95% CI: 76-86]) was lower than that among non-IC patients (ED/UC: 94% [95% CI: 93-94]; hospitalization: 96% [95% CI: 95-97]). Similar patterns were observed for viral-vector vaccines. Transplant recipients had lower VE than other IC subgroups. Conclusion(s): During B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant predominance, IC adults received moderate protection against COVID-19-associated medical events from three mRNA doses, or one viral-vector dose plus a second dose of any product. However, protection was lower in IC versus non-IC patients, especially among transplant recipients, underscoring the need for additional protection among IC adults. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines at preventing emergency department or urgent care encounters and hospitalizations among immunocompromised adults: An observational study of real-world data across 10 US states from August-December 2021
Embi PJ , Levy ME , Patel P , DeSilva MB , Gaglani M , Dascomb K , Dunne MM , Klein NP , Ong TC , Grannis SJ , Natarajan K , Yang DH , Stenehjem E , Zerbo O , McEvoy C , Rao S , Thompson MG , Konatham D , Irving SA , Dixon BE , Han J , Schrader KE , Grisel N , Lewis N , Kharbanda AB , Barron MA , Reynolds S , Liao IC , Fadel WF , Rowley EA , Arndorfer J , Goddard K , Murthy K , Valvi NR , Weber ZA , Fireman B , Reese SE , Ball SW , Naleway AL . Vaccine 2023 BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised (IC) persons are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes and are less protected by 1-2 COVID-19 vaccine doses than are immunocompetent (non-IC) persons. We compared vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended COVID-19 of 2-3 mRNA and 1-2 viral-vector vaccine doses between IC and non-IC adults. METHODS: Using a test-negative design among eight VISION Network sites, VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) events and hospitalizations from 26 August-25 December 2021 was estimated separately among IC and non-IC adults and among specific IC condition subgroups. Vaccination status was defined using number and timing of doses. VE for each status (versus unvaccinated) was adjusted for age, geography, time, prior positive test result, and local SARS-CoV-2 circulation. RESULTS: We analyzed 8,848 ED/UC events and 18,843 hospitalizations among IC patients and 200,071 ED/UC events and 70,882 hospitalizations among non-IC patients. Among IC patients, 3-dose mRNA VE against ED/UC (73% [95% CI: 64-80]) and hospitalization (81% [95% CI: 76-86]) was lower than that among non-IC patients (ED/UC: 94% [95% CI: 93-94]; hospitalization: 96% [95% CI: 95-97]). Similar patterns were observed for viral-vector vaccines. Transplant recipients had lower VE than other IC subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: During B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant predominance, IC adults received moderate protection against COVID-19-associated medical events from three mRNA doses, or one viral-vector dose plus a second dose of any product. However, protection was lower in IC versus non-IC patients, especially among transplant recipients, underscoring the need for additional protection among IC adults. |
Early Estimates of Bivalent mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department or Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Immunocompetent Adults - VISION Network, Nine States, September-November 2022.
Tenforde MW , Weber ZA , Natarajan K , Klein NP , Kharbanda AB , Stenehjem E , Embi PJ , Reese SE , Naleway AL , Grannis SJ , DeSilva MB , Ong TC , Gaglani M , Han J , Dickerson M , Fireman B , Dascomb K , Irving SA , Vazquez-Benitez G , Rao S , Konatham D , Patel P , Schrader KE , Lewis N , Grisel N , McEvoy C , Murthy K , Griggs EP , Rowley EAK , Zerbo O , Arndorfer J , Dunne MM , Goddard K , Ray C , Zhuang Y , Timbol J , Najdowski M , Yang DH , Hansen J , Ball SW , Link-Gelles R . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (5152) 1616-1624 During June-October 2022, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 sublineage accounted for most of the sequenced viral genomes in the United States, with further Omicron sublineage diversification through November 2022.* Bivalent mRNA vaccines contain an ancestral SARS-CoV-2 strain component plus an updated component of the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineages. On September 1, 2022, a single bivalent booster dose was recommended for adults who had completed a primary vaccination series (with or without subsequent booster doses), with the last dose administered ≥2 months earlier (1). During September 13-November 18, the VISION Network evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of a bivalent mRNA booster dose (after 2, 3, or 4 monovalent doses) compared with 1) no previous vaccination and 2) previous receipt of 2, 3, or 4 monovalent-only mRNA vaccine doses, among immunocompetent adults aged ≥18 years with an emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) encounter or hospitalization for a COVID-19-like illness.(†) VE of a bivalent booster dose (after 2, 3, or 4 monovalent doses) against COVID-19-associated ED/UC encounters was 56% compared with no vaccination, 31% compared with monovalent vaccination only with last dose 2-4 months earlier, and 50% compared with monovalent vaccination only with last dose ≥11 months earlier. VE of a bivalent booster dose (after 2, 3, or 4 monovalent doses) against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was 57% compared with no vaccination, 38% compared with monovalent vaccination only with last dose 5-7 months earlier, and 45% compared with monovalent vaccination only with last dose ≥11 months earlier. Bivalent vaccines administered after 2, 3, or 4 monovalent doses were effective in preventing medically attended COVID-19 compared with no vaccination and provided additional protection compared with past monovalent vaccination only, with relative protection increasing with time since receipt of the last monovalent dose. All eligible persons should stay up to date with recommended COVID-19 vaccinations, including receiving a bivalent booster dose. Persons should also consider taking additional precautions to avoid respiratory illness this winter season, such as masking in public indoor spaces, especially in areas where COVID-19 community levels are high. |
Effectiveness of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Among Immunocompromised Adults During SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Predominance - VISION Network, 10 States, December 2021-August 2022.
Britton A , Embi PJ , Levy ME , Gaglani M , DeSilva MB , Dixon BE , Dascomb K , Patel P , Schrader KE , Klein NP , Ong TC , Natarajan K , Hartmann E , Kharbanda AB , Irving SA , Dickerson M , Dunne MM , Raiyani C , Grannis SJ , Stenehjem E , Zerbo O , Rao S , Han J , Sloan-Aagard C , Griggs EP , Weber ZA , Murthy K , Fadel WF , Grisel N , McEvoy C , Lewis N , Barron MA , Nanez J , Reese SE , Mamawala M , Valvi NR , Arndorfer J , Goddard K , Yang DH , Fireman B , Ball SW , Link-Gelles R , Naleway AL , Tenforde MW . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (42) 1335-1342 Persons with moderate-to-severe immunocompromising conditions might have reduced protection after COVID-19 vaccination, compared with persons without immunocompromising conditions (1-3). On August 13, 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that adults with immunocompromising conditions receive an expanded primary series of 3 doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. ACIP followed with recommendations on September 23, 2021, for a fourth (booster) dose and on September 1, 2022, for a new bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine booster dose, containing components of the BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant (4). Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) of monovalent COVID-19 vaccines among persons with immunocompromising conditions since the emergence of the Omicron variant in December 2021 are limited. In the multistate VISION Network,(§) monovalent 2-, 3-, and 4-dose mRNA VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization were estimated among adults with immunocompromising conditions(¶) hospitalized with COVID-19-like illness,** using a test-negative design comparing odds of previous vaccination among persons with a positive or negative molecular test result (case-patients and control-patients) for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). During December 16, 2021-August 20, 2022, among SARS-CoV-2 test-positive case-patients, 1,815 (36.3%), 1,387 (27.7%), 1,552 (31.0%), and 251 (5.0%) received 0, 2, 3, and 4 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses, respectively. Among test-negative control-patients during this period, 6,928 (23.7%), 7,411 (25.4%), 12,734 (43.6%), and 2,142 (7.3%) received these respective doses. Overall, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization among adults with immunocompromising conditions hospitalized for COVID-like illness during Omicron predominance was 36% ≥14 days after dose 2, 69% 7-89 days after dose 3, and 44% ≥90 days after dose 3. Restricting the analysis to later periods when Omicron sublineages BA.2/BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 were predominant and 3-dose recipients were eligible to receive a fourth dose, VE was 32% ≥90 days after dose 3 and 43% ≥7 days after dose 4. Protection offered by vaccination among persons with immunocompromising conditions during Omicron predominance was moderate even after a 3-dose monovalent primary series or booster dose. Given the incomplete protection against hospitalization afforded by monovalent COVID-19 vaccines, persons with immunocompromising conditions might benefit from updated bivalent vaccine booster doses that target recently circulating Omicron sublineages, in line with ACIP recommendations. Further, additional protective recommendations for persons with immunocompromising conditions, including the use of prophylactic antibody therapy, early access to and use of antivirals, and enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions such as well-fitting masks or respirators, should also be considered. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Proposed key characteristics of male reproductive toxicants as an approach for organizing and evaluating mechanistic evidence in human health hazard assessments
Arzuaga X , Smith MT , Gibbons CF , Skakkebaek NE , Yost EE , Beverly BEJ , Hotchkiss AK , Hauser R , Pagani RL , Schrader SM , Zeise L , Prins GS . Environ Health Perspect 2019 127 (6) 65001 BACKGROUND: Assessing chemicals for their potential to cause male reproductive toxicity involves the evaluation of evidence obtained from experimental, epidemiological, and mechanistic studies. Although mechanistic evidence plays an important role in hazard identification and evidence integration, the process of identifying, screening and analyzing mechanistic studies and outcomes is a challenging exercise due to the diversity of research models and methods and the variety of known and proposed pathways for chemical-induced toxicity. Ten key characteristics of carcinogens provide a valuable tool for organizing and assessing chemical-specific data by potential mechanisms for cancer-causing agents. However, such an approach has not yet been developed for noncancer adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The objective in this study was to identify a set of key characteristics that are frequently exhibited by exogenous agents that cause male reproductive toxicity and that could be applied for identifying, organizing, and summarizing mechanistic evidence related to this outcome. DISCUSSION: The identification of eight key characteristics of male reproductive toxicants was based on a survey of known male reproductive toxicants and established mechanisms and pathways of toxicity. The eight key characteristics can provide a basis for the systematic, transparent, and objective organization of mechanistic evidence relevant to chemical-induced effects on the male reproductive system. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5045. |
Les lanternes rouges: the race for information about cycling-related female sexual dysfunction
Partin SN , Connell KA , Schrader SM , Guess MK . J Sex Med 2014 11 (8) 2039-47 INTRODUCTION: Cycling is growing in popularity among women. As in men, it is associated with genital neuropathies and decreased sensation in female riders. However, there is a gap in research and information addressing the relationship between cycling and female sexual dysfunction (FSD) in women. AIMS: To review the literature investigating pelvic floor injuries and sexual dysfunction in female cyclists. METHODS: Searches in several electronic databases were conducted, and relevant articles that met the inclusion criteria were identified for critical review. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure to be determined was the strength of the current body of evidence in published literature of a correlation between cycling-related pelvic floor injuries and FSD. RESULTS: Data on FSD from cycling-related injuries in women are limited. Research indicates that bicycle setup and riding equipment may be contributing factors. Women's ergonomics and physiology interact differently with the bicycle than men's. Current evidence offers insufficient foundation to recommend various effect-mitigating equipment and products. CONCLUSIONS: While gender-specific cycling products offer a promising direction for protecting women riders, studies addressing FSD and pelvic floor injuries in women cyclists are inadequate to indicate clear etiology or provide treatment recommendations. Current evidence is also insufficient to recommend effect-mitigating equipment and products. |
Assessing the reproductive health of men with occupational exposures
Schrader SM , Marlow KL . Asian J Androl 2014 16 (1) 23-30 The earliest report linking environmental (occupational) exposure to adverse human male reproductive effects dates back to1775 when an English physician, Percival Pott, reported a high incidence of scrotal cancer in chimney sweeps. This observation led to safety regulations in the form of bathing requirements for these workers. The fact that male-mediated reproductive harm in humans may be a result of toxicant exposures did not become firmly established until relatively recently, when Lancranjan studied lead-exposed workers in Romania in 1975, and later in 1977, when Whorton examined the effects of dibromochloropropane (DBCP) on male workers in California. Since these discoveries, several additional human reproductive toxicants have been identified through the convergence of laboratory and observational findings. Many research gaps remain, as the pool of potential human exposures with undetermined effects on male reproduction is vast. This review provides an overview of methods used to study the effects of exposures on male reproduction and their reproductive health, with a primary emphasis on the implementation and interpretation of human studies. Emphasis will be on occupational exposures, although much of the information is also useful in assessing environmental studies, occupational exposures are usually much higher and better defined. |
Survey of New Mexico school health professionals regarding preparedness to support sexual minority students
Mahdi I , Jevertson J , Schrader R , Nelson A , Ramos MM . J Sch Health 2014 84 (1) 18-24 BACKGROUND: For schools to be safe and supportive for students, school health professionals should be aware of the particular challenges lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or questioning (LGBTQ) students face, especially the risk for discrimination, violent victimization, and depression in the school setting. We assessed school health professionals' preparedness to address needs of LGBTQ students. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data collected during a New Mexico school health conference. This analysis focused on the preparedness of 183 school nurses, counselors, and social workers to address needs of LGBTQ students. Data were analyzed by using chi-square tests, other non-parametric tests, and logistic regression. RESULTS: Social workers (84.6%) and counselors (81.5%) were more likely than school nurses (55.8%) to report moderate or high knowledge of LGBTQ youth health risks, including suicide and depression (p < .001). Approximately half of school counselors and social workers reported no or low knowledge of LGBTQ community-based organizations or knowledge of counselors experienced with LGBTQ concerns. CONCLUSION: School health professionals in New Mexico do not appear prepared to address needs of LGBTQ students. Schools should consider integrating specific content about LGBTQ health risks and health disparities in trainings regarding bullying, violence, cultural competency, and suicide prevention. |
Evaluation of the effectiveness of semen storage and sperm purification methods for spermatozoa transcript profiling
Mao S , Goodrich RJ , Hauser R , Schrader SM , Chen Z , Krawetz SA . Syst Biol Reprod Med 2013 59 (5) 287-95 Different semen storage and sperm purification methods may affect the integrity of isolated spermatozoal RNA. RNA-Seq was applied to determine whether semen storage methods (pelleted vs. liquefied) and somatic cell lysis buffer (SCLB) vs. PureSperm (PS) purification methods affect the quantity and quality of sperm RNA. The results indicate that the method of semen storage does not markedly impact RNA profiling whereas the choice of purification can yield significant differences. RNA-Seq showed that the majority of mitochondrial and mid-piece associated transcripts were lost after SCLB purification, which indicated that the mid-piece of spermatozoa may have been compromised. In addition, the number of stable transcript pairs from SCLB-samples was less than that from the PS samples. This study supports the view that PS purification better maintains the integrity of spermatozoal RNAs. |
The bar sinister: does handlebar level damage the pelvic floor in female cyclists?
Partin SN , Connell KA , Schrader S , Lacombe J , Lowe B , Sweeney A , Reutman S , Wang A , Toennis C , Melman A , Mikhail M , Guess MK . J Sex Med 2012 9 (5) 1367-73 INTRODUCTION: Cycling is associated with genital neuropathies and erectile dysfunction in males. Women riders also have decreased genital sensation; however, sparse information exists addressing the effects of modifiable risks on neurological injuries in females. AIM: This study assesses the effects of bicycle setup and cyclists' attributes on GS and saddle pressures among female cyclists. METHODS: Previously, we compared genital sensation in competitive female cyclists (N = 48) to that of female runners (N = 22). The current study is a subanalysis of the 48 cyclists from the original study group. Nonpregnant, premenopausal women who rode at least 10 miles per week, 4 weeks per month were eligible for participation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Genital sensation was measured in microns using biosthesiometry measures of vibratory thresholds (VTs). Perineal and total saddle pressures were determined using a specialized pressure map and recorded in kilopascals (kPA). RESULTS: Handlebars positioned lower than the saddle correlated with increased perineum saddle pressures and decreased anterior vaginal and left labial genital sensation (P < 0.05, P < 0.02, P < 0.03, respectively). Low handlebars were not associated with total saddle pressures or altered genital sensation in other areas. After adjusting for age and saddle type, low handlebars were associated with a 3.47-kPA increase in mean perineum saddle pressures (P < 0.04) and a 0.86-micron increase in anterior vagina VT (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Handlebars positioned lower than the saddle were significantly associated with increased perineum saddle pressures and decreased genital sensation in female cyclists. Modifying bicycle setup may help alleviate neuropathies in females. Additional research is warranted to further assess the extent of the associations. |
Occupational exposure to acrylamide in closed system production plants: air levels and biomonitoring
Moorman WJ , Reutman SS , Shaw PB , Blade LM , Marlow D , Vesper H , Clark JC , Schrader SM . J Toxicol Environ Health A 2012 75 (2) 100-11 The aim of this study was to evaluate biomarkers of acrylamide exposure, including hemoglobin adducts and urinary metabolites in acrylamide production workers. Biomarkers are integrated measures of the internal dose, and it is total acrylamide dose from all routes and sources that may present health risks. Workers from three companies were studied. Workers potentially exposed to acrylamide monomer wore personal breathing-zone air samplers. Air samples and surface-wipe samples were collected and analyzed for acrylamide. General-area air samples were collected in chemical processing units and control rooms. Hemoglobin adducts were isolated from ethylenediamine teraacetic acid (EDTA)-whole blood, and adducts of acrylamide and glycidamide, at the N-terminal valines of hemoglobin, were cleaved from the protein chain by use of a modified Edman reaction. Full work-shift, personal breathing zone, and general-area air samples were collected and analyzed for particulate and acrylamide monomer vapor. The highest general-area concentration of acrylamide vapor was 350 mcg/cm(3) in monomer production. Personal breathing zone and general-area concentrations of acrylamide vapor were found to be highest in monomer production operations, and lower levels were in the polymer production operations. Adduct levels varied widely among workers, with the highest in workers in the monomer and polymer production areas. The acrylamide adduct range was 15-1884 pmol/g; glycidamide adducts ranged from 17.8 to 1376 p/mol/g. The highest acrylamide and glycidamide adduct levels were found among monomer production process operators. The primary urinary metabolite N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl) cysteine (NACEC) ranged from the limit of detection to 15.4 mcg/ml. Correlation of workplace exposure and sentinel health effects is needed to determine and control safe levels of exposure for regulatory standards. |
Pubertal delay in male nonhuman primates (Macaca mulatta) treated with methylphenidate
Mattison DR , Plant TM , Lin HM , Chen HC , Chen JJ , Twaddle NC , Doerge D , Slikker W Jr , Patton RE , Hotchkiss CE , Callicott RJ , Schrader SM , Turner TW , Kesner JS , Vitiello B , Petibone DM , Morris SM . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2011 108 (39) 16301-6 Juvenile male rhesus monkeys treated with methylphenidate hydrochloride (MPH) to evaluate genetic and behavioral toxicity were observed after 14 mo of treatment to have delayed pubertal progression with impaired testicular descent and reduced testicular volume. Further evaluation of animals dosed orally twice a day with (i) 0.5 mL/kg of vehicle (n = 10), (ii) 0.15 mg/kg of MPH increased to 2.5 mg/kg (low dose, n = 10), or (iii) 1.5 mg/kg of MPH increased to 12.5 mg/kg (high dose, n = 10) for a total of 40 mo revealed that testicular volume was significantly reduced (P < 0.05) at months 15 to 19 and month 27. Testicular descent was significantly delayed (P < 0.05) in the high-dose group. Significantly lower serum testosterone levels were detected in both the low- (P = 0.0017) and high-dose (P = 0.0011) animals through month 33 of treatment. Although serum inhibin B levels were increased overall in low-dose animals (P = 0.0328), differences between groups disappeared by the end of the study. Our findings indicate that MPH administration, beginning before puberty, and which produced clinically relevant blood levels of the drug, impaired pubertal testicular development until approximately 5 y of age. It was not possible to resolve whether MPH delayed the initiation of the onset of puberty or reduced the early tempo of the developmental process. Regardless, deficits in testicular volume and hormone secretion disappeared over the 40-mo observation period, suggesting that the impact of MPH on puberty is not permanent. |
Women's bike seats: a pressing matter for competitive female cyclists
Guess MK , Partin SN , Schrader S , Lowe B , Lacombe J , Reutman S , Wang A , Toennis C , Melman A , Mikhail M , Connell KA . J Sex Med 2011 8 (11) 3144-53 INTRODUCTION: There are numerous genital complaints in women cyclists, including pain, numbness, and edema of pelvic floor structures. Debate ensues about the best saddle design for protection of the pelvic floor. AIM: To investigate the relationships between saddle design, seat pressures, and genital nerve function in female, competitive cyclists. METHODS: We previously compared genital sensation in healthy, premenopausal, competitive women bicyclists and runners. The 48 cyclists from our original study comprise the study group in this subanalysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main outcome measures were: (i) genital vibratory thresholds (VTs) determined using the Medoc Vibratory Sensation Analyzer 3000 and (ii) saddle pressures as determined using a specially designed map sensor. RESULTS: More than half of the participants (54.8%) used traditional saddles, and the remainder (45.2%) rode with cut-out saddles. On bivariate analysis, use of traditional saddles was associated with lower mean perineal saddle pressures (MPSP) than riding on cut-out saddles. Peak perineal saddle pressures (PPSP) were also lower; however, the difference did not reach statistical significance. Saddle design did not affect mean or peak total saddle pressures (MTSP, PTSP). Saddle width was significantly associated with PPSP, MTSP, and PTSP but not with MPSP. Women riding cut-out saddles had, on average, a 4 and 11 kPa increase in MPSP and PPSP, respectively, compared with women using traditional saddles (P = 0.008 and P = 0.010), after adjustment for other variables. Use of wider saddles was associated with lower PPSP and MTSP after adjustment. Although an inverse correlation was seen between saddle pressures and VTs on bivariate analysis, these differences were not significant after adjusting for age. CONCLUSION: Cut-out and narrower saddles negatively affect saddle pressures in female cyclists. Effects of saddle design on pudendal nerve sensory function were not apparent in this cross-sectional analysis. Longitudinal studies evaluating the long-term effects of saddle pressure on the integrity of the pudendal nerve, pelvic floor, and sexual function are warranted. |
Designing prospective cohort studies for assessing reproductive and developmental toxicity during sensitive windows of human reproduction and development - the LIFE Study
Buck Louis GM , Schisterman EF , Sweeney AM , Wilcosky TC , Gore-Langton RE , Lynch CD , Boyd Barr D , Schrader SM , Kim S , Chen Z , Sundaram R . Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 2011 25 (5) 413-424 The relationship between the environment and human fecundity and fertility remains virtually unstudied from a couple-based perspective in which longitudinal exposure data and biospecimens are captured across sensitive windows. In response, we completed the LIFE Study with methodology that intended to empirically evaluate a priori purported methodological challenges: * implementation of population-based sampling frameworks suitable for recruiting couples planning pregnancy; * obtaining environmental data across sensitive windows of reproduction and development; * home-based biospecimen collection; and * development of a data management system for hierarchical exposome data. We used two sampling frameworks (i.e. fish/wildlife licence registry and a direct marketing database) for 16 targeted counties with presumed environmental exposures to persistent organochlorine chemicals to recruit 501 couples planning pregnancies for prospective longitudinal follow-up while trying to conceive and throughout pregnancy. Enrolment rates varied from <1% of the targeted population (n = 424 423) to 42% of eligible couples who were successfully screened; 84% of the targeted population could not be reached, while 36% refused screening. Among enrolled couples, approximately 85% completed daily journals while trying; 82% of pregnant women completed daily early pregnancy journals, and 80% completed monthly pregnancy journals. All couples provided baseline blood/urine samples; 94% of men provided one or more semen samples and 98% of women provided one or more saliva samples. Women successfully used urinary fertility monitors for identifying ovulation and home pregnancy test kits. Couples can be recruited for preconception cohorts and will comply with intensive data collection across sensitive windows. However, appropriately sized sampling frameworks are critical, given the small percentage of couples contacted found eligible and reportedly planning pregnancy at any point in time. |
Pleuritis and suppurative pneumonia associated with a hypermucoviscosity phenotype of Klebsiella pneumoniae in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus)
Jang S , Wheeler L , Carey RB , Jensen B , Crandall CM , Schrader KN , Jessup D , Colegrove K , Gulland FM . Vet Microbiol 2010 141 174-7 The aim of this study is to document the isolation of a hypermucoviscosity (HMV) phenotype of Klebsiella pneumoniae from 25 cases of suppurative pneumonia and pleuritis and two cases of abscesses in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) from the central California coast, representing the first report of this zoonotic pathogen from the marine environment and only the second report in non-humans. Animals died 2h to 4 days after first being observed sick on beaches. Clinical signs varied from dyspnoea to coma. Gross post-mortem examination of 25 cases revealed fibrinous pleuritis, copious pus in the pleural cavity and suppurative bronchopneumonia. K. pneumoniae isolates obtained from lung and pleural swabs and the hepatic and subcuticular abscesses were highly mucoid on blood agar culture media and were positive to the "string test". Twenty-one of the 27 isolates were examined by PCR and all were positive for rmpA and K2wyz and negative for K1magA genes. Although pneumonia and pleuritis have previously commonly been observed in marine mammals, their association with pure cultures of a zoonotic bacteria, K. pneumoniae HMV phenotype, has not. This report provides further evidence of the role marine mammals play as sentinels of health risks to humans from coastal waters. |
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